The breakdown of the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad an 8 December 2024 has brought Syria back into the focus of world attention. Far many Syrians, the rapid, surprising dynamic led to mixed feelings: On the one hand, joy and happiness due to the end of one of the most globally brutal regimes. On the other hand, fear and anxiety due to the uncertain, possible precarious future. The presentation takes a step back, examining the process of political transition in Syria in four parts: The first part analyses the four areas of territorial control which existed in Syria in 2023/24. The second part studies the rebel offensive, led by the Sunni-lslamist HTS, which managed to take power in most of Syria over the course of only eleven days. The third part takes a closer look at the first weeks of the political transition process in December 2024 and January 2025. The fourth and final part presents major challenges for a stabilization of the political situation in Syria and outlines possible scenarios for the future of the country.
André Bank is a Senior Research Fellow at the GIGA German Institute for Global and Area Studies, Institute for Middle East Studies in Hamburg. He is a member of both the Executive Council of the Merian Centre for Advanced Studies in the Maghreb (MECAM), which is based in Tunis, and of the Steering Committee of the Project on Middle East Political Science (POMEPS). In his research, André Bank examines dynamics of authoritarianism and violent conflict, with a focus on the Middle East but also comparatively. His recent articles have been published in, among others, Democratization, Digest of Middle East Studies, and Middle East Policy as well as in a number of edited volumes. In 2021, he co-edited the Mediterranean Politics special issue “MENA Political Science Research a Decade after the Arab Uprisings: Facing the Facts on Tremulous Grounds.”
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This talk is part of the lecture series “Syria at a Crossroads”, a collaboration between the Center for Near and Middle Eastern Studies at Philipps-Universität Marburg, Europe in the Middle East – The Middle East in Europea (EUME), and the Merian Centre for Advanced Studies in the Maghreb (MECAM) in Tunis.